A substantial number of the coal mines in China are in the geological condition of thick alluvium layer. Under these circumstances, it does not make sense to predict ground surface subsidence and other deformations by using conventional prediction models. This paper presents a novel ground surface subsidence prediction model for sub-critical mining in the geological condition of thick alluvium layer. The geological composition and mechanical properties of thick alluvium is regarded as a random medium, as are the uniformly distributed loads on rock mass; however, the overburden of the rock mass in the bending zone is looked upon as a hard stratum controlling the ground surface subsidence. The different subsidence and displacement mechanisms for the rock mass and the thick alluvium layer are respectively considered and described in this model, which indicates satisfactory performances in a practical prediction case.