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篇目详细内容 |
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【篇名】 |
Simulation analysis of domestic water demand and its future uncertainty in water scarce areas |
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【刊名】 |
Frontiers of Earth Science in China |
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【刊名缩写】 |
Front. Earth Sci. China |
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【ISSN】 |
1673-7385 |
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【EISSN】 |
1673-7490 |
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【DOI】 |
10.1007/s11707-009-0047-z |
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【出版社】 |
Higher education press and springer-verlag |
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【出版年】 |
2009 |
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【卷期】 |
3
卷3期 |
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【页码】 |
349-360
页,共
12
页 |
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【作者】 |
Shouke WEI;
Albrecht GNAUCK;
Alin LEI;
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【关键词】 |
domestic water demand; water scarcity; modeling and simulation; forecasting; scenario analysis; Beijing |
【摘要】 |
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This paper demonstrates a practical simulation approach to analyze domestic water demand and its future uncertainty in water scarce areas through a case study of Beijing, China. Analytic models and a forecasting model were constructed using statistic and econometric regression approaches. The analytic models were used to analyze the interrelationships between domestic water demand and some socio-economic factors of Beijing. The forecasting model was applied to predict domestic water demand from 2009 to 2015, and this model was validated by comparing the prediction values with the observations. Scenario analysis was applied to simulate uncertainty and risks in domestic water demand in the future. The simulation results proved that domestic water demand will increase from 13.9×108 m3 to 16.7×108 m3 from 2009 to 2015. Three more sustainable strategies were also found through scenario analysis. The simulation and modeling approaches and results would be very supportive for water decision makers in allocating water efficiently and making sustainable water strategies. |
